The effectiveness of monetary policy and output fluctuations: An asymmetric analysis

Previous studies have investigated asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy on the real economic activity by using either vector autoregressive (VAR)-based regime-switching models with smooth transition technique or Gaussian functions to parameterise the dynamic effects of structural shocks on the economy. These kinds of VAR models assume asymmetry as a short-run relationship between the series since the long-run neutrality hypothesis of money states that monetary policy can only affect productive capacity of the economy in the short run, but not in the long run. The recent theoretical literature shows that this hypothesis is not quite right. Thus, this paper examines the extent to which monetary policy has a long-run asymmetric effect on output in a number of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries by using a nonlinear hidden cointegration analysis within a likelihood-based panel framework. The findings indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the real interest rate as an indicator of monetary policy and the growth rate of real output in five countries out of nine under review. This gives support for the view that output has responded asymmetrically to the real interest rate changes. The economic implication of our results is that monetary policy affects positive and negative output fluctuations differently.     

基于声誉效应的工程监理激励机制模型研究

为了提高工程监理工作积极性,基于Holmstrom-Milgrom模型,引入声誉效应,建立声誉效应和显性激励机制相结合的动态委托代理激励模型。分析声誉效应发挥激励机制作用条件,并与未考虑声誉效应的委托代理模型进行比较。结果表明:声誉效应在满足一定的条件下,引入声誉激励机制能够增加业主的期望收益,并且能提高监理的努力水平。最后,通过数值仿真模拟验证引入声誉效应的合理性。     

Simulated economic impacts in applied trade modelling: A comparison of tariff aggregation approaches

This paper assesses the performance of two recently developed tariff aggregators in reducing tariff aggregation bias by analysing Swiss beef market liberalisation scenarios. Specific relevant sources of bias are addressed: substitution effects on import demand, Tariff Rate Quotas and overprotection in tariffs. The aggregators are linked to a global large-scale partial equilibrium model and benchmarked against a standard aggregator. The choice of the aggregation method shows considerable effects on simulated economic impacts, specifically if the dispersion in tariffs or tariff cuts is large. A large bias is revealed in simulated gains from trade liberalisation using the standard aggregator. The impacts on traded quantities are found to be overestimated, while price and welfare effects can be higher or lower by switching to alternative aggregation methods. By reducing aggregation bias and depicting negotiated tariff schedules more directly, the proposed aggregators enhance the contribution of trade modelling to evidence-based policy making.     

城镇化背景下治安治理社会化的探索与创新——以钱江世纪城派出所“物业联席会”创建为例

治安治理社会化的核心是社会力量的参与。从宋代的民治传统到建国以来的政策与实践探索,从警务社会化、治安管理社会化到治安社会化、社会治安社会化治理等概念的相继提出,构成了治安治理社会化的演进脉络。治安治理社会化的本质是治安秩序维护的多元化,强调多元化共治、过程性理念与互动性思维的有机统一。杭州市公安局萧山区分局以“物业联席会”机制创建为载体,整合社会资源,激发社会组织活力,为治安治理社会化提供了更多可能的路径。借鉴“物业联席会”的创建经验,城镇化背景下的治安治理社会化应坚持党委组织领导,协同推进组织载体创新、联动机制创新与智慧化手段运用相融合。     

Promote Competitive Neutrality to Facilitate China’s Economic Development:Outlook,Policy Simulations,and Reform Implementation-A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report(2019-2020)

Twenty nineteen(2019)marked another year of lethargic growth in the Chinese economy amidst escalated internal and external complexities.Internally,the country's macroeconomic landscape was overcast continuously by fallen consumption growth,plunged growth in manufacturing investment,rapid accumulation of household debt,risen income inequality,and the overhang of local government debt.The nation's external conditions did not fare any better,with drastically declined growth in imports and exports,continued trade tensions with the US,and weakened external demand.Based on the IAR-CMM model,which takes account of both cyclical and secular factors,the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.0%in 2020(5.9%using more reliable rather than the official data),with a downside risk.Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted,in addition to the benchmark forecast,to reflect the influences of various internal and external uncertainties.The findings emanated from these analyses lead us to stress the importance and urgency of deepening reform to achieve competitive neutrality for China’s transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality development.     

Heterogeneity and netting efficiency under central clearing: A stochastic network analysis

This paper examines the effect of heterogeneity in clearing members’ exposure management practices under central clearing. Our network model specifies the dynamics of prenetted interbank exposures to shape interdependent exposure distributions beyond normality. Employing over-the-counter derivatives market data from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, our simulation results indicate that heterogeneity in bank-to-bank exposure dynamics is systemically desirable, while the entire system benefits more from the central clearing in more homogeneous environments. Policymakers should incentivize individual clearing members to enhance resiliency and stability in counterparty exposure management to maximize netting efficiency under central clearing.     

Valuation of VIX and target volatility options with affine GARCH models

In this paper we propose semiclosed-form solutions, subject to an inversion of the Fourier transform, for the price of VIX options and target volatility options under affine GARCH models based on Gaussian and Inverse Gaussian distributions. We illustrate the advantage of the proposed analytic expressions by comparing them with those obtained from benchmark Monte–Carlo simulations. The empirical performance of the two affine GARCH models is tested using different calibration exercises based on historical returns and market quotes on VIX and SPX options.     

银行业联合授信制度制约企业的非效率投资了吗*——基于沪深A股公司的分析

中国银保监会出台联合授信管理制度旨在抑制企业过度融资行为，提高资金使用效率。为检验该制度是否达到预期效果，采用2014—2018年沪深A股上市公司样本，运用非平衡面板数据回归实证考察联合授信机制对企业非效率投资的影响，发现联合授信对企业的非效率投资（包含投资不足和投资过度）呈现显著抑制效应，其中联合授信对投资过度的抑制效应最大。进一步研究发现，相较于国有、大规模、低负债、高盈利等异质属性的企业，联合授信对非国有、小规模、高负债、低盈利等属性企业的非效率投资（尤其是投资过度）抑制效应更为显著。     

离心式血液泵水力特性设计及其试验研究

借助商业软件NREC开展离心式血液泵的水力特性设计,其设计流量为5 L/min,设计转速为5000 r/min,得到离心叶轮和蜗壳的三维结构设计方案,并针对其全通道网格进行设计工况下三维流场的定常数值模拟研究.对其溶血性指标进行分析,发现离心式血液泵中95％ 区域切应力小于150 Pa,最大切应力小于500 Pa,满足人体对血液泵溶血性的要求.搭建离心式血液泵流量-压升特性试验测试平台,以质量分数为0.06％ 的黄原胶溶液为流动介质进行试验研究,试验结果显示在设计转速下的实际体积流量偏大于设计流量,整体压升在6550 Pa左右.     

基于CLUE-S和GMOP模型的青龙满族自治县土地利用情景模拟

[目的]对青龙满族自治县未来土地利用格局进行多情景预测模拟,并探索土地经济和生态综合效益双提升目标下的土地利用发展格局,以期为区域土地资源优化配置和国土空间规划的编制提供参考。[方法]基于土地利用现状数据和社会经济统计资料,分别利用CLUE-S单模型、灰色多目标优化(GMOP)+CLUE-S模型对研究区进行了土地利用情景模拟。[结果](1)所选驱动因子对土地利用类型的解释能力较好,ROC值均大于0.7,满足Auto-Logistic回归要求,模拟检验的Kappa系数为91.03%,模拟效果比较理想;(2)到2020年,基于CLUE-S单模型的自然发展情景,研究区建设用地扩张占用耕地和林地现象突出,土地经济效益提升较大,但生态效益却呈现负增长;基于GMOP+CLUE-S模型的多目标优化情景,研究区建设用地扩张趋势得到控制,耕地、林地面积有所增加,未利用地得到较大程度开发,实现了土地经济和生态效益双提升,分别比2015年提升了3.12%和1.96%。[结论]GMOP+CLUE-S模型能够发挥两个模型各自在结构优化和空间分配方面的优点,有利于实现区域土地利用数量结构、空间布局和综合效益的协同优化。